The Ghana Meteorological Agency’s Chief Forecaster has condemned the dismissal of the two Hungarian meteorologists as a loss to humanity and Meteorological community.
The head of the Hungarian Meteo Agency Kornelia Radics, and her Deputy Gyula Horvath were dismissed for getting a weather forecast wrong.
Felicity Ahafianyo told JoyNews Mahmud Mohammed-Nurudeen that, the dismissal of professional weather forecasters who have grown through all seasons and have more than 10 years of work experience is a loss to humanity and the meteorological society, especially at a time when climate unpredictability is a major concern.
According to the top forecaster, the best choice would have been to find out what truly happened and if such a weather phenomenon had ever occurred before, or if it was the first of its kind.
“Most definitely, I am 100% sure, most of them won’t put in their best again unless a few who has job satisfaction. No matter what we will go on to say what the model charts and their work-related experiences are predicting,” she said.
Madam Felicity used March 6, 2014, as an example, when she predicted rain for southern Ghana, including Accra. Because it was Independence Day, she was able to get the forecast to NADMO with the recommendation that the planning committee is notified. According to her, the procession should be short-lived or postponed.
“When the President at the time mounted the podium, he admitted the forecast. I was happy, but do you know what followed?
“A query and summons letter to appear before GMet Management, my self-esteem went straight to zero and it took the grace of God to remain in the Agency and do what I love.”
According to her, there are thousands of reasons why a weather forecast could be incorrect, as well as thousands of reasons why it could be completely accurate.
“Atmospheric dynamics is complex to human understanding and accurate weather forecast goes beyond the science and the ordinary human understanding. However, climate scientists across the globe keep working tirelessly just to make the forecast right, therefore the public should rest assured 80% of our forecast is good to depend upon.”
She went on to say that weather is never static and is always changing. As a result, she recommended to the public to monitor the GMet Forecast Office for Alerts.
As of August 26, 2022, 83 weather forecasters from seven different continents have stood in solidarity with the fired Hungarian meteorologists.
A global network of weather broadcasters called Climate Without Borders has gathered backing from 51 nations, including Belgium, Panama, The Netherlands, United Kingdom, United States, Denmark, Kenya, Colombia, Qatar, Morocco, South Africa, and Ghana among other countries across the world.
After heavy storms they had predicted for the capital on the most significant national holiday of the country did not materialize and instead passed to the south, two top officials with Hungary’s National Meteorological Service (NMS) were sacked on Monday, August 22, 2022.
According to reports, a large annual fireworks display in Budapest was postponed because the forecast called for severe storms to hit around 9 p.m. local time. Over a million people typically attend the fireworks display commemorating St. Stephen’s Day, a celebration that honors the birth of the nation.
After the errant forecast, the agency was ridiculed in the Hungarian media. The following day, the NMS apologized on its Facebook page, but it was too late to save the job of Kornelia Radics, the agency’s head, and Gyula Horvath, her deputy.
On Tuesday morning, 17 agency leaders demanded that their fired coworkers be reinstated as soon as possible in a statement posted on the meteorological service’s Facebook page. They claimed that the firings were motivated by politics and that the forecast was made using the best available information at the time.
The dismissal of its Hungarian colleagues has outraged Climate Without Borders, which expresses disbelief.
“As forecasters, our first mission is to protect life and property. When Hungarian meteorologists saw danger in the forecast, they did what any of us would do – warned of the risk to life. For this, the head and deputy head of their national weather service have now been dismissed from their posts, ” a statement on its Facebook page has said.
All science, according to the statement, deals with uncertainty, but none more so than meteorology adding that, predicting what a chaotic system like the atmosphere will do next is a task that should be nearly impossible. Instead, forecasting has progressed to the point where everyone expects to know exactly what the weather is going to do in their location at any given time.
“That people have such high expectations of us weather forecasters is testament to the quality of our forecasts but we are the first to acknowledge the uncertainty within them. The forecast models we use give us a range of possibilities, so we use our judgement and experience to predict what weather you are most likely to get. Sometimes, however, the least likely scenario is the one that hits – just as it did in Budapest on Saturday – and people who like to deal in certainties accuse us of getting it “wrong”.
As our planet warms and our climates change, the uncertainty will only deepen. The weather will become increasingly difficult to predict, leaving forecasters more and more vulnerable to criticism and recrimination.”
Climate Without Borders stated that its members will continue to prioritize people above politics and utilize science to put safety first, adding that projections will be imperfect at times and often unpopular, but – like their Hungarian colleagues – they will continue to do so.
Several Facebook users have criticised the dismissal of the meteorologists, calling it politically motivated.
